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Greenland stadials and interstadials (GS/GI) were millennial climate oscillations during the last glacial period that were originally identified in Greenland ice cores but that have been correlated with environmental change around much of the globe, including in monsoon regimes, with enhanced monsoon rainfall coincident with North Atlantic warming. Hydroclimate variability associated with GS/GI have been investigated in detail using terrestrial (primarily oxygen isotopes in stalagmites) and marine records, particularly for the Southeast Asian monsoon. However, a considerably smaller number of terrestrial records preserve these events in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the primary water source for ~2 billion people across South Asia. Here we present the first glacial-age speleothem stable isotope time series from Nepal, located in the ISM regime. UK-1 is a 187 mm tall aragonite stalagmite from the Pokhara Valley of central Nepal, ~150 km west of Kathmandu. The chronology of UK-1, which was established by 8 U/Th dates, all of which fall in stratigraphic order (within the errors), reveals continuous growth from 34,350-31,500 yr BP (Marine Isotope Stage 3); age uncertainties average ±84 yr. Stable isotope samples were measured every 1 mm, corresponding to a temporal resolution of 18 yr. Oxygen isotope ratios range from -5.6‰ to -7.6‰, and share the same timing and structure as Greenland (inter)stadials GS/GI 6 and 5.2 in the NGRIP record. We interpret this as reflecting an amount effect response to a strengthened ISM driven by more (less) poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone during periods of northern hemisphere warming (cooling). This clear millennial signal in UK-1 is a somewhat unexpected result given that amount effects in oxygen isotopes in precipitation are weak (R^2=0.1) in this area today. UK-1 carbon isotope ratios range from -3‰ to -6‰ (excluding a small number of negative spikes) and exhibit variability coarsely similar to the NGRIP record, with lower (higher) values generally corresponding to GI (GS), possibly due to prior calcite precipitation in voids above the cave concomitant with changes in precipitation. Some periods of antiphasing between carbon and oxygen are also apparent and may reflect flushing of soil carbon dioxide during particularly wet phases. 

Over the late Holocene, a variety of hydroclimate-sensitive proxies have identified substantial, multidecadal changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation, the most prominent of which is the “4.2 ka event”. This interval, dated to ~4.2-3.9 ka, is associated with severe droughts across South Asia that are linked to societal change. Given the absence of the 4.2 ka event in polar records, the 4.2 ka event is generally associated with low latitude forcings, but no clear consensus on its origins has been reached. We investigated the ISM response to the 4.2 ka event through analysis of aragonite stalagmites from Siddha cave, formed in the lower Paleozoic Dhading dolomite in the Pokhara Valley of central Nepal (28.0˚N, 84.1˚E; ~850 m.a.s.l.). The climate of this region is dominated by small monthly variations in air temperature (21±5˚C) but strong precipitation seasonality associated with the ISM: ~80% of the annual 3900 mm of rainfall occurs between June and September. High uranium and low detrital thorium abundances in these stalagmites yield precise U/Th ages that all fall within stratigraphic order. These dates reveal continuous growth from 4.30-2.26 ka, interrupted only by a hiatus from 3.27-3.10 ka. Overlap with coeval aragonite stalagmites reveals generally consistent trends in carbon and oxygen isotope ratios, suggesting that these stalagmites reflect environmental variability and not secondary (e.g., kinetic) effects. Many stalagmite-based paleomonsoon reconstructions rely on oxygen isotope ratios, which track amount effects in regional rainfall. However, our on-going rainwater collection and analysis program, as well as a previous study conducted in Kathmandu, 120 km the east of Siddha cave, reveals that amount effects in precipitation are weak in this region, particularly during the monsoon season, and thus we rely instead on carbon isotope ratios, which have been demonstrated to track site-specific effective precipitation. Siddha cave stalagmite carbon isotopes, in contrast to other South Asian proxy records, indicate that ISM rainfall increased at Siddha cave from 4.13-3.91 ka. As a further test of this result, we analyzed uranium abundances in the section spanning 4.3-3.4 ka. Uranium serves as an indicator of prior aragonite precipitation and thus of hydroclimate, and like carbon isotopes, suggests increased ISM rainfall coincident with the 4.2 ka event. This precipitation anomaly is nearly identical in timing and structure but anti-phased with stalagmites from Mawmluh cave, northeastern India. We investigated the climatic origins of this precipitation dipole using observational data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) products. Preliminary spatial composites suggest that large precipitation differences between Mawmluh and Siddha caves are associated with SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Additionally, superposed Epoch Analysis shows relatively rapid eastern Indian Ocean cooling during the summer monsoon season coeval with large precipitation differences between these sites. Our findings lend support to a tropical Indo-Pacific origin of the 4.2 ka event. 

The Azores High is a subtropical high-pressure ridge in the North Atlantic surrounded by anticyclonic winds that steer rain-bearing weather systems. The size and intensity of the Azores High modulate the oceanic moisture transport to Europe thereby affecting hydroclimate across western Europe, especially during wintertime. While changes in the North Atlantic storm track have been linked to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we focus on North Atlantic variability with a subtropical perspective by focusing on the Azores High independently of the Icelandic Low. The subtropical perspective provides a direct understanding of regional climate variability in the western Mediterranean and reveals dramatic changes to North Atlantic climate throughout the past century and can provide insight into the impact of future warming on the dynamics of the Azores High and associated hydroclimate. Here we show that winters with an extremely large Azores High are significantly more common in the industrial era (since 1850 CE) than in preindustrial times, resulting in anomalously dry conditions across the western Mediterranean, including the Iberian Peninsula. Climate model simulations of the past millennium indicate that the industrial-era expansion of the Azores High is unprecedented throughout the last millennium (since 850 CE), consistent with proxy evidence from Portugal. Azores High expansion emerges after the end of the Little Ice Age and strengthens into the 20th century consistent with anthropogenically-driven warming. 

Arctica islandica (ocean quahog), a commercially-important, long-lived bivalve species, is abundant on much of the northeastern United States continental shelf. Several recent studies have noted increases in growth rates of these clams over the last 200 years at some locations in the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight region whereas growth rates at sites farther north have remained constant through time. It has been suggested that these changes in growth rate are related to warming in the more southerly sites. However, a direct comparison between site-specific bottom-water temperatures and A. islandica growth rates has not been done. We present oxygen isotope data measured in Arctica islandica shells, a proxy for seawater temperature, paired with simulated temperature from high-resolution ocean model output to investigate the relationship between A. islandica shell growth rate and bottom water temperatures throughout the northeastern United States continental shelf. The relationship between oxygen isotopes and growth rate in A. islandica is assessed at several locations, including the continental shelf offshore New Jersey and Long Island, and the Georges Bank region. Bottom water temperature trends at these locations are further assessed using the VIKING20X ocean model, which uses JRA55-do (55-year Japanese Atmospheric Reanalysis for driving ocean-sea-ice models) atmospheric forcing from 1958 to present and nests a 1/20° Atlantic Ocean in a 1 ⁄ 4° global domain. The results of this work have implications for the ocean quahog fishery, in particular as water temperatures off the eastern coast of the United States are predicted to continue to increase in response to global climate change. Additionally, this research lends insights into the use of A. islandica growth as a paleoclimate proxy for bottom water temperature. 

Climate in the Iberian Peninsula is impacted by both internal and external climate modes, which are expected to shift in position and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change. Examples of such modes include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic mode (EA). Changes in the behavior in these regional climate modes could significantly alter water availability in the Iberian Peninsula, a region identified by model projections as particularly sensitive to future warming scenarios. There has been extensive research and paleoclimate reconstructions of the NAO and its impacts on Iberian climate. However, to date few paleoclimate records have been developed to evaluate the behavior of the EA over the late Holocene and into the present. The development of highly resolved regional paleoclimate records from Iberia is critical for improving the predictive capability of regional climate models under future warming scenarios and to determine the extent to which different teleconnection patterns are influencing climate. Here we present a near annually resolved stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope time-series from three stalagmites from the Algarve region of southern Portugal from two caves within 2.3 km of each other. The southern coast of Portugal offers an ideal location to study the behavior of the EA due to the modulation of storm tracks coming across the North Atlantic Ocean into Iberia associated with the EA. U/Th dating indicates that our composite record spans the last millennia continuously through 2018 CE. Two stalagmites (GIA-19-1 and C-18-1) stopped growing around 1600 CE, during a dry interval, and sample GIA-19-2 grew continuously since the 15th century. GIA-19-2, with sub-annual resolution, is compared to modern instrumental records to evaluate the influence of specific environmental controls, including temperature and precipitation amounts. Isotope data from all three stalagmites exhibit substantial multidecadal variability indicating relatively wet and dry intervals. Based on our initial results, it is likely that both temperature and precipitation amount effects are the dominant controls on isotopic variability in these stalagmites. Comparison of the GIA-19-2 oxygen isotope time-series with the instrumental index (1950 to present) and reconstructed index (1650 CE to present) of the EA mode shows strong coherence with both index records. Hence, multidecadal variability observed in our stalagmite isotope time series may provide insight into the historical behavior of the EA mode and its resulting impacts on southern Portuguese climate. 

Abstract The Northwest Atlantic, which has exhibited evidence of accelerated warming compared to the global ocean, also experienced several notable marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the last decade. We analyze spatiotemporal patterns of surface and subsurface temperature structure across the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope to assess the influences of atmospheric and oceanic processes on ocean temperatures. Here we focus on MHWs from 2015/16 and examine their physical drivers using observational and reanalysis products. We find that a combination of jet stream latitudinal position and ocean advection, mainly due to warm core rings shed by the Gulf Stream, plays a role in MHW development. While both atmospheric and oceanic drivers can lead to MHWs they have different temperature signatures with each affecting the vertical structure differently and horizontal spatial patterns of a MHW. Northwest Atlantic MHWs have significant socio-economic impacts and affect commercially important species such as squid and lobster.